Calculate the probability of winning, expected profit, and variance ranges for a playing session.
Your expected win rate advantage per hand/bet.
SD per unit bet. Blackjack ~1.15, even-money ~1.0, sports varies.
Number of hands/bets in this session.
hands
Your standard bet amount per hand.
Session Expectations
Expected Profit
Session Std Deviation
Probability of Winning Session
Probability of Losing Session
Outcome Ranges (Confidence Intervals)
Range
Low
High
Probability
Loss Probability Table
Loss Amount
Probability of Losing This Much or More
Formulas:
EV = edge × hands × bet_size
Session SD = unit_SD × bet_size × √hands
P(win) = Φ(EV / Session_SD) where Φ is the standard normal CDF
Source: Stanford Wong "Professional Blackjack"