Drawdown Probability Calculator

Calculate the probability of experiencing various drawdown levels from your bankroll peak.

Your expected win rate advantage per bet.
SD per unit bet. Blackjack ~1.15, even-money ~1.0.
Total number of bets over the time period you want to analyze.
Your current bankroll (for dollar amount calculations).
Your standard bet amount.

Drawdown Probability Table

Drawdown %Drawdown ($)Probability of OccurringExpected Recovery (bets)

Expected Maximum Drawdown

Expected Max Drawdown (units)
Expected Max Drawdown ($)
Expected Max Drawdown (%)
Recovery Time from Max DD

Interpretation

Formulas:
P(drawdown ≥ D) ≈ e^(-2 × edge × D_units / SD²) (barrier hitting probability)
Expected max drawdown ≈ (SD² / (2 × edge)) × ln(N) where N = number of bets
Recovery bets = D_units / edge (expected bets to recover D units)
Source: Feller "Introduction to Probability Theory"; Thorp "Kelly Criterion"